2014 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions - Otto

West:

Anaheim vs Dallas: (Season series: Stars 2-1)

The Ducks wrapped up the top spot in the West a few days before the end of the season. Their opponent was still up in the air until Dallas was able to overtake the final wildcard spot from the Mike Smithless Phoenix Coyotes.

Anaheim has been among the trio of California teams batting for the top spot in the Pacific Division all season. The Ducks have been one of the league’s best home teams this season, their 29 home wins are good for second best. They do not struggle to score, however they do not have the scoring depth of some of the teams in this year’s playoffs. They will need to get good goaltending from Jonas Hiller if they are to make a deep run this year.

The stars quietly made their way back into the playoffs for the first time since the 07-08 season despite a loss to the Coyotes in the final game of the season. A balanced scoring attack led by Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn is what helped the Stars back to the playoffs.  Steady goaltending provided by Kari Lehtonen didn't hurt their chances either. They will need the same performance that they got in his 33 wins to get past the Ducks in the first round.

While I like to think that the Stars have the ability to grind it out with Anaheim’s top two lines, I think that in the end the Ducks will be able to overpower the Stars.  I’ll take the Ducks in 6.

Colorado vs Minnesota (Season Series: Avs 4-0-1)

Last season, the Colorado Avalanche were near the bottom of the league in virtually every category. Their only major win was the draft lottery, which provided them with the first overall pick. This season has been a complete change in fortune. The Avs were competing for the top seed in the west up until the last game of the season. While that bid came up short, they were able to pass both the Blues and Blackhawks to claim the Central Division title, landing them a date with the Minnesota Wild in the first round. They keys to success for the Avs were outstanding goaltending from Semyon Varlamov  (a team record 41 wins in 63 games played) and unbelievable play from the young stars. They Avs are a threat to score at any point of the game while not sacrificing defense to do so. They speed that the Avs possess doesn't compare to any team I have watched this season.

The Wild put together a nice push at the end of the season to walk away with the top wild card spot. After a quick scare that they might falter like they did to close out the 2012-13 campaign, not counting a lopsided loss to the Predators on the final day of the season, the Wild won their last 4 meaningful games. In that stretch, the wins came against Pittsburgh, Boston, St Louis, and Winnipeg. Healthy goaltenders have been an issue for the Wild this season. 4 goalies have made 10 or more starts, all 4 of them registering at least 5 wins. It appears Ilya Bryzgalov will be the starter for the Wild, though youngster Darcy Kuemper will be ready to go if called upon.

Although I will be rooting for the Wild to win, I have a feeling they have one more year to go before making a playoff run. Qualifying for a second straight year is definitely something to build upon. Overall it’s the speed and goaltending that will allow the Avs to win this series in 5.

San Jose vs Los Angeles (Season Series: Kings 3-1-1)

This battle of California is the series that I am looking forward to watching the most. They Sharks have been sharp all season while battling for the Pacific division title. However, they have struggled this decade (and some of the last) to get their wins when it matters. On paper their team game should be successful, they have a great combination of leadership and youth. They have consistent goaltending which is all that they need when everyone buys in to the system.

The Kings are one of those teams that don’t play their best hockey in the regular season. As long as they are in position to make the playoffs they re content. Their grind it out style game is exactly what is needed for the second season. A healthy Jonathan Quick may be the difference in this series, unless trade deadline Marian Gaborik can shake of his playoff struggles and provide some offensive firepower. If the Kings can start scoring some goals to go along with their team defense, they may become the team to beat in 2014.

Seeing San Jose win this series at home wouldn't surprise me in the least. However, since they have been there before and have proved that they can win, I’ll take the Kings in 6.

St Louis vs Chicago (Season Series: Blues 3-2)

Just two weeks ago, the Blues were looking to knock off the Pacific powerhouses and claim the top spot in the west. Six games, and six losses later, not only did they not get the top spot in the west, they didn't even finish with the top spot in the Central. Ryan Miler has looked average at best, possibly the result of few to many pucks in Buffalo. They Blues haven’t been able to score lately either. They will need both to get back on track to make a run at the Blackhawks, even though the Blues are the higher ranked team.

Chicago might have gotten an odd form of benefit from the injuries to Jonathan Towes and Patrick Kane. Both players are keys to the success of the Blackhawks and were important to their Olympic teams as well. So, given that both return above 90% healthy, the rest could rejuvenate the defending champions. Cory Crawford has been reliable again this season, registering 32 wins.

I don’t know if the Blues can snap out of their slump in time to beat a very talented and experienced Blackhawks team. Chicago in 6 is my pick.

East:

Boston vs Detroit (Season Series: Wings 3-1)

Boston is the most balanced team in the East by a long shot. They can score goals, they have great defense, and their goalie is in the running for the Vezina trophy. The Bruins have been able to take it easy down the stretch, resting a few key players without the threat of being caught by anyone else in the East. The idea that it might have been a bad thing that most of season was played without much competition is concerning for those outside of the Boston locker room. Whether or not they are able to flip the switch to playoff competition will be interested, especially against an opponent like the Wings

The Red Wings simply don’t know how to miss the playoffs. Only a few weeks ago, the possibility of a Detroitless playoffs seemed to be real. As the weeks wound down, the young players took over and the Wings started to get healthy. Datsyuk and Zetterberg returned to the lineup, providing the leadership and experience that was needed to make the playoff push that always seems to happen. They Wings have to like their chances against the Bruins as well given their regular season success against them. They play of Jimmy Howard will be the key to this series. If he can steal a game early, especially on the road, it may swing the momentum enough to change the series.

Of all the wild card teams, I think Detroit has the best chance to move on. However, I think that Boston might just be too good to lose this one. I’ll take the Bruins in 7,

Pittsburgh vs Columbus (Season Series: Penguins 5-0)

Baring another collapse by Marc-Andre Fleury, I believe that this series will be the most lopsided for the first round. The Pens can score with anyone in the league, as long as they are able to stay healthy. While that wasn't the case for most of the year, they are getting most of their key guys back as the playoffs start.

Columbus cannot match the offensive output of the Pens so they will be relying heavily on the services of the Bob. Sergei Bobrovski led the Jacket to 32 wins this year, 5 by shutout, while posting a .923 save percentage.  He will need to keep up those numbers just to keep the Blue Jackets in the series.

I think Bobrovski steals one at home but it will be just that. The Jackets get overpowered and the Pens take the series in 5.

Tampa Bay vs Montreal (Season Series: Lightning 3-0-1)

This match-up pairs 2 of the hottest teams in the league headed into the playoffs. Both have registered 7 wins in their last 10. While the season series looks like the Lightning dominated, 3 of the 4 games were decided in a shootout.

Tampa Bay has continued to succeed despite the departure of Marty St Louis. The team play of Ryan Callahan has allowed Steven Stamkos to excel as one as the league’s best players upon his return from injury. Ben Bishop, another potential Vezina candidate, has been important too. An X factor to start the year, his 37 wins kept the Lightning near the top of the division all season.

Montreal has quietly had a good season as well. Olympic goal medalist Carey Price led the Habs to second place in the division. Trade deadline acquisition Thomas Vanek helped solidify a solid offensive group. 

I think Carey Price’s career year continues and he leads the Canadians on to the second round in 6 games.

New York vs Philadelphia (Season Series: Tied 2-2)

This match up is arguably the biggest rivalry of the first round on the eastern side, though Detroit and Boston might not be too far behind for long.

The Rangers battled most of this year with the transition between the old and new style that comes with the hiring of a new coach. Now that they have settled in and added experience in Marty St. Louis, the Rangers have become a formidable opponent for anyone in the East. Brad Richards returned to being a 20 goal scorer, along with Rick Nash, while 5 other players got within 3 of the 20 goal mark. If Henrik Lundqvist can find playoff consistency to match his 2.36 regular season goals against average, this team looks mighty dangerous.

Philadelphia is surprise team in these playoffs given their terrible start to the season. A quick pull of the plug and changing of the coach allowed the Flyers to turn their season around and climb back into the playoff hunt. Another surprise this season for the Flyers is the play of Steve Mason. Written off by many, he returned this season and posted 33 wins. Seven, twenty goal scorers is the key for the Flyers. The Rangers might be able to shut down a line or two but if they can get secondary scoring, the Flyers have a chance to make a run.

I feel that the Rangers are going to have a good post season this year. They have the weapons to score goals and Lundqvist is due for a big playoff performance. In what should be a very intense series, I’ll take the Rangers in 6. 

Average is no Longer Acceptable

The short month of February started off very nice and ended with more mediocrity for the Minnesota Wild. They have had a few chances to separate themselves from the teams that they are in direct completion with but on more than one occasion have failed to do so. With this the month closed out with the Wild sitting in 9^th place in the west, still four points away from the number four seed and four points away from the number 12 seed. The problem with this is that they are only one position above where they entered the month; they were sitting in tenth just four points away from the number four seed. Doing the same as the rest of the average teams in the west will not cut it in the last two months of this season. The Wild need to take control of their own destiny now, not wait for someone to let them into the playoffs. They can start that this week against three Eastern Conference opponents, teams that do not have much experience playing the Wild. This month I have decided to take a good news bad news approach to review what happened so here we go.

Good News: An 8-5-1 record has kept them in the hunt for a playoff spot. They started the month 5-1 moving up as high as fifth in the standings, only to close out the month 3-4-1 and return to their original starting position.

Bad News: Mikko Koivu broke a finger and is expected to be out a while. The only positive is that he is expected to return by the end of the season, this could go either way though, how good is a center with a broken finger? In the case of Mikko and the Wild, I'll guess that he will still be a number one center even if he has to wear a splint on it.

Good News: Brent Burns scored his 16^th goal of the season last night, setting a career high for himself as well as a franchise single season record for a defenseman.

Bad News: The Wild played 5 games against the teams that are currently above them by 4 points or less, they went 1-4 in those games. The only team they played that is four points or less below them is Anaheim, who they beat twice this month but once in a shootout, causing them to only take a one point edge from the game.

Good News: Marty Havlat found a groove during the month and is now at 54 points for the season, showing us glimpses of why we go him a few years ago.

Bad News: Mikko is still number two on the team in points with a ten point margin even with his injury, Burns is number 3 as a defenseman, and the scoring binge that Clutterbuck was on has seemingly ended. We need someone besides Havlat to score goals, and someone to step up until Koivu returns to the lineup.

Good News: The Wild play three more of the pivotal games against those teams within four points of them either way again this month. This gives them a chance to strengthen their position before the final month of the season. The Wild also play four games again the bottom three teams in the Western Conference. Although these games are not "gimmies" they are must wins if the Wild want to make the playoffs.

I'm Not Sure News: I haven't decided yet how I feel about the Wild standing still at the trade deadline. I like the confidence in the current lineup, but I would have liked to see a trade made to bring in a big guy or another center to fill in for Mikko. There wasn't a whole lot available and based on what the Kings gave up to get Penner from the Oilers ill stick with what we have and the future. Only time will tell what we should have done, maybe this will be the right decision in the long and short run.

Other I'm Not Sure News: Living in the center of New York I often hear about how strong the east is, as it was mentioned on Yahoo! a few weeks ago that the middle of the west is "terrible." The Wild have a chance to prove everyone wrong, or right, this month. They play four games against teams from the east that are looking to gain or improve a playoff spot, as well as one against the Islanders who have been playing their best hockey of the year so far.

March will finally be that make or break month for the Wild. They still have 5 games left in April but if they do not have a good month they will no longer be in contention. I think they have a possibility to escape with just four losses if they can find their game before they come to New York tomorrow. Hopefully we will see the return of Mikko within the first few weeks and the resurgence of the special teams play that has been crucial in the wins this year. I would like nothing more than to see the Wild sitting in a playoff spot when the month ends ready to lock it up before April even begins.

Up and Down We Go, the Wild’s Path to the NHL Playoffs

The New Year has pumped some life into fans such as myself, as well at the chances at a playoff spot for the Minnesota Wild. During the month of January, the Wild went on both a three and four game winning streak while closing out the month with a win. The problem occurred between the two winning streaks where the Wild dropped three games in a row. Despite that streak the month was a success, an 8-4 record helped to propel the Wild from thirteenth place in the west to tenth. The Wild sit just 5 points out of fourth place with at least a game to play on each team above them. On the same note the Wild cannot fall back to old habits, they are only four points away from falling back into fourteenth place, ahead of only the Oilers. Vancouver has remained out in front in both the Western Conference and the Northwest division compiling 71 points with a 4-2-4 record in their last ten.

In terms of the wins and losses I would have preferred the losing streak to have happened against the Eastern Conference part of the January schedule but the Wild did go 3-1 on the month against the teams in their division. The most notable stretch in January was the three game winning streak against the division opponents, the Wild seemed to find their offensive power which in turn tuned up the defense. Rookie goaltender, Anton Khudobin, strung together two excellent performances; shutting out Vancouver while making 32 saves and holding Edmonton to just one goal on 31 shots. The following night Niklas Backstrom returned between the pipes and answered the performance by Khudobin with a shutout of his own. During the winning streak the Wild provided their goalies with 14 goals of support, one of the strongest performances of the season so far.

The balance of the offense has been shifted a bit as well; I would not be surprised at all if the Wild have one of the most balanced stat books in the league. Four players currently are tied for the team lead in goals with 14; Martin Havlat, whose groove lately found him an all star spot, Mikko Koivu, Brent Burns, and Cal Clutterbuck. Havlat and Koivu are supposed to score goals but Burns is a defenseman and Clutterbuck is the definition of a grinder. Andrew Brunette currently has 12 goals and Matt Cullen has added 10 of his own, making both players capable of joining the list of leaders on any night. The overall points lead is a bit more spread out, Havlat and Koivu are the only two players with at least 40 points with 44 and 43 respectively while Cullen and Burns are the only two in the thirties with 31 a piece.

The month of February will be a true test for the Wild, while they only have four games against division opponents they play 13 games against teams that will also be trying to move into and or improve their playoff position. Matchups include two of the three current division leaders and three games against teams who currently tied for the final playoff spot in the West (positions 7, 8, and 9). Time will tell if another month similar to last month's 8-4 record will result in more positive movement or a neutral wash but either way if the Wild can find a way to repeat that success the beginning of March will hold a lot of promise.

The other big event in January was the all-star game, which ended up including two Wild players; Martin Havlat and Brent Burns. Both players were on Team Lidstrom, who won the game 11-10. Havlat picked up three assists despite being a -1 rating overall, Burns added an assist of his own while being a -2. Congratulations again to both of these players on their selections as well as to all who were involved with the game.

Tonight is also a big night in Minnesota hockey world as Andrew Brunette(Bruno) will take the ice for his 1,000th NHL game. Tonight's game against the Kings will be number 457 for Bruno in a Wild uniform.
Brunette is the team's second all time leading scorer with 303 points, trailing only Marian Gaborik in that category. Congratulations to you as well Bruno and may you have many more games left, preferably in the Wild uniform.

More of the Same

For the third month in a row, the Wild failed to break out of the ordinary. The gained points in nine of their fifteen games this month but only picked up six wins. The did however win all four of their division games, though three of them were against Calgary who is currently above only Edmonton in the Western Conference.
The Wild got a good feel for where they fit in to the rest of the conference as well. They played four games against the top five teams in the west. In these games they only picked up one win, against San Jose, and lost in over time to the Stars. The other two games, against Anaheim and Detroit, did not go nearly as well. The Wild seemed to be overpowered as they gave up ten goals in the two games while only scoring three.
As has been the case in the last two months the Wild still sit right where they were at the beginning. Simply based on the standings the Wild are still in good shape continuing toward the playoffs. The only thing that has changed is their shot at winning the division, Vancouver has not lost in regulation in their last thirteen games boosting them to the top of the Western Conference. The Avalanche now trail the Canucks by ten points and the Wild trail them by fourteen points. The bottom of the conference has remained the game however, the Wild are in thirteenth place but still only four points out of sixth place and six points away from fourth. Nothing is out of the question still in terms of the playoff picture for the Wild.
Goal tending was the biggest inconsistency for the Wild this month, Backstrom had a three game winning streak where he allowed only one goal in each game. However he was in net for the losses to Anaheim and Detroit. Theodore was called upon more often then usual however his stats didn't match up. He played in six games and picked up only one win, an overtime win against Los Angeles. For the month his goals against average was just under three and his save percentage was around .900, levels that just aren't going to get it done for the wild as they try to make a push.
January brings about an opportunity for the wild once again, they play only four division games again this month, one against each team in the division. On top of those games they play three games early against some of the top teams in the East. This month will be make or break for the Wild, I think if they can pull into a playoff spot now they will be able to hold on and ride out the rest of the season. If they do not start a move now, working into the playoffs in the last two and a half months would be much more difficult. I'm hoping for the earlier of the two but only time will tell. Until then LETS GO WILD!

Movember Review

Once again this year many of the Wild players participated in Movember, from the teams website; Movember is an annual charity event held during November that engages men to grow Mo’s (slang for moustache) to raise awareness and funds for cancers affecting men. Last season, Wild defenseman Nick Schultz was one of the first NHL players to embrace the cause after the father of one of his closest friends developed prostate cancer and is currently battling against one of the more treatable forms of the disease. A 501(c)3 non-profit, Movember benefits the Prostate Cancer Foundation and LIVESTRONG.

Niklas Backstrom, Mikko Koivu, Marty Havlat, Nick Schultz

As for the month of November in terms of hockey it was a hot and cold one to say the least. They compiled six wins in the first eight games of the month only to close it out with a single win in the last five. The hot start was much to the credit of Niklas Backstrom, stealing a few games that the Wild didn't have a whole lot of business being in. The Wild were outshot by 80 shots though the first eight games, barely outscoring opponents while putting together their wins. In every one of these wins Wild opponents had at least ten more shots, in the wins over San Jose and Tampa Bay they were outshot by twenty but still managed one goal wins. On the other hand, in their two losses the Wild were outshot by a combined five shots. For the first half of the month the power play was converting on a quarter of their chances. The high spot of the month was the win over Detroit, who is number one in the west, even though the box score shows the Wild getting out played. Any time you can knock off one of the top teams in the league it does wonders for team confidence.

The second half of the season was another story for the team. In five games, they allowed 23 goals, eleven more then they scored despite scoring five in the win against Nashville and 4 in the loss to Colorado. The trend continued with shots as well as the Wild were outshot by 32 in the five games. The power play has struggled as well converting on just over six percent of their chances in the last series of games. The low spot is tough to pick for the month, the 6-1 loss to the Flyers hurt a lot but the 7-4 loss to division rival Colorado is embarrassing considering how well the goaltending has played this year.

So what does effect does November have on the Wild in terms of the season? Without factoring in today's games, on the last day of the month, the Wild sit in third place in the Northwest Division only 3 points behind both Vancouver and Colorado. Despite being that close to the division lead they sit only 2 points ahead of Calgary after their shutout loss to them earlier this week and surprisingly only 6 points ahead of last place Edmonton. The 24 points that the Wild have is good for only 12^th place in the Western Conference; however, they sit four points out of the number four spot in the conference.

In my October recap I said that a record of four games over .500 would be very nice for the month, they only went one game over. The result is essentially remaining stationary in the standings, the same in the division and only a one position drop in the conference. The Wild need to work on keeping shots closer as well, the game against Calgary on Monday was the first time they have outshot the opponent since Edmonton on October 14^th and only the third time all season.

December is a tough month for the Wild, they play four division games and of the 14 games this month all but one is against Western Conference opponents. A winning month would be extremely beneficial in the standings though I expect them to once again hang around the .500 level maybe just a game or two over. This should keep them in the playoff race but still on the outside looking in at a time that I would like to see them work their way up.

A Look Around the Northwest Division

NORTHWEST	GP	W	L	OTL	PTS	Home	Road	Overall	EAST	WEST	NW
Vancouver	18	10	5	3	23	6-0-1	4-5-2	10-5-3	5-2-1	5-3-2	4-1-0
Colorado	18	10	7	1	21	5-4-0	5-3-1	10-7-1	2-2-0	8-5-1	1-2-1
Minnesota	17	9	6	2	20	6-3-1	3-3-1	9-6-2	2-3-1	7-3-1	4-1-0
Calgary	17	7	10	0	14	4-5-0	3-5-0	7-10-0	0-2-0	7-8-0	3-3-0
Edmonton	17	4	10	3	11	2-5-0	2-5-3	4-10-3	1-2-1	3-8-2	1-4-1

Through a month of the NHL season 2 things are clear in the Northwest division; the difference for the Edmonton Oilers is not yet Taylor Hall and the Vancouver Canucks cannot be beaten at home.

EDMONTON OILERS:

For the Oilers it looks to be another rebuilding year, some are even talking about back to back first round draft picks though nothing is out of the question in either direction yet. As a number one draft pick Taylor had some large expectations to live up to and hasn't quite found a groove yet. He is a -8 in the plus minus category with 3 goals and 4 assists to put him at 7 points on the season, unfortunately for the oilers that puts him in either place on the team for scoring. Goaltending has not helped the team either; recently injured Nikolai Khabibulin has started 15 games, completing 13 of them, with a 4-10-1 record. He has allowed over 4 goals a game and currently has a .879 save percentage. Certainly the defense has not been much help but certainly more is expected of the veteran goalie in Edmonton. The Oilers will now turn to Devan Dbnyk who is 0-2 this season with a 2.99 GAA and a .923 save percentage, a small sample size but a desperate hope for the Oilers regardless. Despite their struggles the Oilters have collected points in 7 of their 17 games.

CALGARY FLAMES:

The Flames have continued this season in the "where do we go from here" direction that took over following the trade of Dion Phaneuf trade to Toronto last season. While they still have stars Jarome Iginla, Miikka Kiprusoff they seem to sit in the middle of the pack with a lack of offense. Kiprusoff has solid stats of 2.75 GAA and a save percentage over .900 but a 6-9 record to show for it. Iginla is the number 5 scorer on the team and his -7 plus minus rating is last among forwards on the team. Rene Borque leads the team with 15 points, 9 goals, a solid number but not enough on a team that should be doing more. Without some major changes, either in player personnel or coaching, I don't see this team doing any better this year then they finished last year. An interesting fact, the Flames are the only team in the division without an overtime loss. They don't have enough spark in their lineup to climb up in what is becoming a tough Northwest division and Western Conference in general.

COLORADO AVALANCHE:

Considering the loss of Craig Anderson for ten games already this season the Avalanche are my surprise team of the Northwest so far. In Peter Budaj's 11 starts this season, which includes one before the injury to Anderson, he has posted a 2.72 GAA and a .909 save percentage while earning 7 wins to the 3 losses and the single overtime loss. The overall balance of the offence has been good so far this year as well, 4 players average at least a point a game. The problem for the Avs seems to be that they either show up and play outstanding for the win or just don't show up at all and take the loss. This seems to be the case from the games that I have seen at least, which is more than the number of Wild games I have seen so far. This season could very well continue for the Avs especially with the return of Craig Anderson, balance is the key for any team these days in the NHL and they sure seem to have it.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS:

Speaking of Balance the Canucks have just that on the offensive side of the ice. They have 8 players with at least double digit points including a perfect balance at the top with the Sedin twins leading in points. Goaltending has also been a strong point so far for the Canucks as it seems to be every year. Roberto luongo has compiled 7 wins in 14 starts with a 2.69 GAA and a .913 save percentage. Backup Cory Schneider has been just strong in 5 appearances posting 3 wins and an overtime loss to go with a 1.59 GAA and a .949 save percentage. As mentioned at the beginning of the post the Canucks are undefeated in regulation at home, going 6-0-1, however they are 4-5-2 on the road. I think that their records inevitably even out a as the season goes along but until then the Canucks will stay atop the division.

MINNESOTA WILD:

If the standings were decided by the stat sheet the Wild would be sitting in the basement of the Northwest division and most likely the Western Conference. Their leading scorer and franchise player has only 3 goals but fortunately 12 assists. Martin Havlat has been finding the groove lately that management expected him to be in all of last year and the beginning of this year. The leading scorer for the Wild, Cal Clutterbuck, has 6 goals. Clutterbuck is supposed to be the physical presence on the ice, not the leading scorer. Brent Burns, a defenseman is the second leading scorer on the team, tied with Antti Miettinen with 5 goals. Niklas Backstrom has been one of only 2 sure things so far for the Wild. He has returned to his old form with a 1.91 GAA and a .938 save percentage on 412 shots through 14 games. The other sure thing has been the power play, which leads the league at 29%. If the Wild can get offense from the sources that it is expected, Havlat, Koivu and Burnett, then this season could be a good one for the Wild. Continued strong performances by Backstrom and solid in division play will help them stay toward to top of the division and among the leaders in the West.