Hello everyone!
This is my first foray into the blogosphere and the first time I have written something this long that isn’t going to be graded. To tell you a little about myself, I like to think I have a pretty objective point of view of the NHL since I do not have a “favorite” team in the league. I am a Rochester Americans fan who has no ties to the NHL other than the fact I live in Buffalo. I have been on the Amerks’ off-ice officials crew for the past 7 seasons, 4 of which I have been at ice level working in the penalty box which has given me a very up close and personal look at professional hockey.
Outside of hockey my other passions sports are the Atlanta Braves, and Women’s Softball Umpiring. Depending how this goes I might try posting on those topics as things arise. Now on to my 2011-2012 preview!
First up, the Northeast Division. Home of the defending Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins and home of quite possibly the worst team in hockey, the Ottawa Senators. This is a tough division to be in especially with the improvements made in Buffalo and Toronto.
Buffalo: 
Prior to this offseason General Manager Darcy Regier was known around the league as a GM who had to build a competitive team while balancing the budget. This summer his new owner Terry Pegula opened up the checkbook and boy did Darcy go shopping. The additions of Robyn Regehr, and Christian Erhoff to the back end will go a long way in improving what was in my opinion a very soft defensive core. Regehr is a tough stay at home defensemen who will log a lot of minutes for Coach Lindy Ruff who all season commented that his team lacked a “lockdown pair.” Well, now he’s got one. Regehr will most likely be paired with Tyler Myers who recently signed a 7 year extension and looks to build off of two strong seasons before the age of 21. Erhoff and his booming slap shot will help elevate a power play that I believe under achieves year after year. Jordan Leopold is a solid veteran will also see time with the man advantage and the 2nd pairing. The third pair will be some combination of Andrej Sekera, Mike Weber, and Marc-Andre Grangani. All three of them have their share of upsides and downfalls though I think it will end up being Weber and Grangani because Sekera seems to drive Ruff crazy at times with his apparent lack of interest.
Behind that defensive core is world-class goaltender Ryan Miller. Miller had a below par season in 2010 that was partly due to injury and overuse. This year with young Jonas Enroth to back him up the workload should be much less and therefore increase Miller’s effectiveness. If he can play the way he did for team USA during the Olympics, the Sabres will be a team on the rise.
For the most part the forward lines Ruff will roll out opening night will be very similar to last season. The big addition was Villie Leino who will be moved into center ice from the wing. This is a bit of a gamble for the Sabres who are new at this free agency thing. Leino has not played center in the NHL and also hasn’t really had a full season that merits the contract that they gave him. What he does bring to the team is playoff experience and playoff scoring which the current group of forwards desperately lacks. The core of Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Drew Stafford are still there to fill in top six slots with Tyler Ennis and Nathan Gerbe competing for the last spot in the top six.
Overall the Sabres improved themselves enough to win their division and hopefully make it out of the first round of the playoffs but I think they are still a #1 center away from being a cup contender. (1st in NE, 2nd in EC)
Boston: 
The Stanley Cup Champions had a very short summer and a few key losses with only a few additions. Then again when you’re the champs you don’t usually have to change that much. The loss of veteran and three time cup winner Mark Recchi will hurt especially at the beginning of the season when it’s time to refocus and start the long season again. I anticipate a let down from guys like Brad Marchand and Tyler Seguin as well as most of the squad. It is a difficult thing to get ready for the upcoming season after spending the summer with the cup. (See Chicago Blackhawks 2010-2011) The team is built from the goal out. Tim Thomas and Tukka Rask are arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league and both have been the top guy the past two seasons. Thomas is the guy for now and Rask the future. The one thing that Boston does not have to worry about is goaltending.
The defensive core is a steady as any. Zdeno Chara is an annual Norris Trophy Candidate and Dennis Seidenberg used last year’s playoffs as a breakout party and let the world know that he is a top pair d-man. After the top pair Johnny Boychuck, Andrew Ference, Adam McQuaid and newcomer Joe Corvo who was basically traded for the disappointing Thomas Kaberle. This group is well rounded and steady.
Up front the Bruins are a pretty unexciting group but an effective group. Led by the trio of David Krecji, Nathan Hortorn and Milan Lucic. Coach Claude Julien preaches a defensive dump and chase style that likes to sends his big wingers to the net hard, and make things difficult for opposing goaltenders. The question will be if Horton can avoid the concussion problems that many Bruins have encountered over the years.
As the season progresses, the Bruins will get back to the level they were at when they won to cup and end up in second place in the Northeast. (2nd in NE 6th in EC)
Toronto: 
The playoff drought in Toronto will NOT continue. That’s right Leafs’ fans your boys will make the playoffs. This of course hinges on two things; a majority of their roster staying healthy and James Reimer being a real #1 goaltender. I like what Brian Burke has done the past couple years. The lineup isn’t really flashy but has a nice mix of players. The addition of the often-injured Tim Connolly to center the top line with streaky sniper Phil Kessel will hopefully help Kessel become a consistent scorer and not just a streaky sniper. Clarke MacArthur will most likely get first crack at the LW slot on the top line but I wouldn’t be surprised if Joffery Lupul gets a shot too. Mikhail Grabovski finally had the breakout season that the Montreal Canadiens were looking for when they drafted him, except he had it with their rival the Maple Leafs…. oops. I remember Grabovski on the Calder Cup winning Hamilton Bulldogs and he had a brief playoff stint but had 11 points in 7 games before being knocked out for the rest of the championship run. He falls into the category of Amerk Killer. The rest of forward group is pretty steady with a lot of interchangeable parts. A wild card could be Nazim Kadri. If he can tap into that potential and become a dynamic scorer he’s supposed to be then he too could see time in the top six.
On defense the Leafs improved with the addition of Cody Franson and John-Michael Liles. Franson is a young up and coming defensemen who along with Captain Dion Phaneuf will form a shutdown pairing for Coach Ron Wilson, who by the way might be on the hot seat if the team gets off to a slow start. Liles will help the Leafs on the man advantage. He is a proven power play quarterback who should succeed in the less physically demanding Eastern Conference after spending his entire career in Colorado.
Between the pipes the Leafs are going with James Reimer. He took Toronto by storm the second half of last season and almost brought the team into the playoffs. It should be interesting to see how he responds to not having a veteran back up to rely on. The departure of J.S. Gigure (Colarado) has opened the door for another youngster in Jonas Gustavvson, who has been injury prone in his brief career and dealt with a bad heart condition, which cut last season short meaning the number one job, is Reimer’s to lose. With all that being said, I like the Leafs to sneak in to the playoffs. It’ll be close but I think they have enough talent and a good compete level to make it. (3rd NE, 8th EC)
Montreal: 
The Canadiens are hoping for bounce back seasons up and down their line up with the exception of goaltender Carey Price. Price had his best season in the NHL last year and almost single handedly took his team to the postseason. If not for Tim Thomas being unbeatable last year Price might have possession of the Vezina Trophy this summer. As you can imagine he will be back between the pipes for the Habs when the season starts. After finding out that Alex Auld is not a suitable back up in the NHL, General Manager Pierre Gauthier went and found what he hopes to be his backup for the next two seasons in former Avalanche Peter Budaj.
On defense the Habs look for a healthy Andrei Markov to pick up where he left off two seasons ago before he was lost for the postseason in 2009-2010 and then all but 5 games last season after a brief comeback from an ACL tear. Challenging Markov for the #1 spot on the depth chart is young P.K. Subban. This kid is dynamite. When I first watched him play against the Amerks as a member of the Hamilton Bulldogs (MTL’s AHL affiliate) I thought he was vastly overrated and a bit of a hot dog. But as I took of the Amerk colored glasses I realized how special he is. He has a quick first step, a very quick release on a heavy and accurate shot, to go along with a bit of an edge that you don’t usually see in offensive defensemen. It’s too bad that Mike Richards was traded from Philly to LA because he and Subban had a bit of a grudge with each other. Anyhow, after Subban and Markov is a solid group that includes Hal Gill, Josh Georges and Jaroslav Spacek. The 6th spot could go to one of many prospects, Russian prospect Alexi Yemelin, Brendon Nash, or Raphael Diaz.
On the attack the Canadaiens have a bunch of nice players but no one who really grabs your eye during the game. Mike Cammalleri, Thomas Plekanec, Scott Gomez Andrei Kostitsyn, and Brian Gionta (Rochester Native!) along with free agent signee Erik Cole fill out the top six. Gomez is in the midst of what might be considered the worst contract of all time. He has done almost nothing while getting paid like a top 15 player in the league. Plekanec is a nice player but is better suited to be a 2nd line center not a #1. Gionta and Cammalleri can be big time goal scorers and bring a good two way game but they don’t have anyone to get them the puck…. except Gomez (fail). (4th in NE 11th in EC)
Ottawa: 
This season will be ugly Sens fans. Think Edmonton of the East. There is hope for the future with a core that just won the Calder Cup with AHL affiliate Binghamton but the future isn’t this year. GM Bryan Murray hasn’t done much to help his two stars in Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredson. In fact since he took over as GM the Senators have not been close to matching the success he had as their coach. Gone are stars such as Zedeno Chara, Wade Redden, and Dany Heatley and in are Nikta Filatov, Zenon Konopka and an aging Sergei Gonchar. Yikes! After Spezza and Alfie there isn’t much the work with. Newcomer Filatov will be given a shot on the top line based on his “potential” and believe me folks I’ve seen him play multiple times as a member of the Syracuse Crunch and he just doesn’t get it. He’s lazy and avoids contact almost at all cost. Beyond him it’s a bunch of young kids and 4th liners like Chris Neil and Konopka.
Gonchar and lifetime Senator Chris Phillips lead a defense that also has young puck mover Erik Karlsson, tough stay at homer Matt Carkner, followed by fringe NHL players in Filip Kuba and Brian Lee. This group is unimpressive.
The lone bright spot might be in the crease. Murray made a slick move at last years deadline acquiring goaltender Craig Anderson (former Amerk) from Colorado. Anderson had a breakout season in 2009-2010 for the Avalanche who took the league by surprise. He can be and is a #1 goalie in my opinion. Last season was a lost year due to injuries including one that occurred during warm ups on a night he was going to be the back up. If he is back to 100% health he will steal some games for the Sens but it won’t be enough to get them to the post season. (5th in NE and 15th in EC)
That's it for now, I'll be back soon with the Atlantic Division preview.
Dan
No comments:
Post a Comment