Biggest Game of the Year…part III

This week Wisconsin comes to Iowa to compete for the Heartland trophy, a reward that has been in play since 2004. Over the course of the trophy Iowa leads the series 4-2 winning 2 at home and 2 on the road, their 2 losses coming in 2006 and 2007 by a total of 7 points. Over the history of the rivalry the Hawkeyes lead by just a game at 42-41-2. The Heartland Trophy game is Iowa's second trophy game of the season, they retained the Cy-Hawk trophy with their 35-7 win over Iowa State earlier this year.

The match up this week appears to be the closest one of the year so far, the Hawkeyes and Badgers appear to be just about mirror images of each other. Both teams have suffered one loss this year, Iowa in week 3 to Arizona and Wisconsin in week 5 to Michigan State. The positive that both teams can take from their losses is that the team they lost to is currently in the top fifteen in the rankings. Wisconsin is coming of their season high, a victory over Ohio State, and hopes to keep their momentum going. Iowa comes in off a much needed victory in the Big House in a game where the stats would not have predicted the outcome at all.

The quarterback match up in the game is so similar that at first glance you might think the stats got copied over and someone forgot to change them.

Quarterback	TD	Int	Comp %	Yards	Sacks
Stanzi	13	2	68.3	1474	11
Tolzien	7	3	70.9	1353	5

Both quarterbacks are typically asked to manage their team while giving the ball to their strong running backs and let them do most of the work. Occasionally they will be called upon to make a big play, which in most cases they manage to do. The play of the quarterback position is my key to the game on Saturday making plays when they need to be made, keeping the chains moving and keeping the ball in their offenses hands will determine who is going to win this one.

The running back position is similar between Iowa and Wisconsin as well. Wisconsin does what Iowa planned to do in spring ball this year, which is using 2 running backs to keep the defense on their toes. Wisconsin has had the benefit of 2 healthy backs while Iowa has had to deal with an injury to Jewell Hampton and the departure of Brandon Wegher for personal reasons. Adam Robinson has taken over full time duty in the feature spot and handled it very well to this point. Robinson has rushed 129 times at 4.8 yards per carry while scoring 3 touchdowns, the only other back over 100 yards to this point is still Jewel Hampton who only played in 2 games this season. Wisconsin backs John Clay have combined for 216 attempts this season averaging over 6 yards a carry and 20 TDs. They also have running back Montee Ball who has rushed 46 times for 201 yards and added 3 more touchdowns. Needless to say the play of the offensive and defensive lines will go a long way in determining just how explosive this game can be.

Both teams have solid defenses coming into the game. Iowa was exposed last week against the pass but I credit that to preparing for Denard Robinson for 2 weeks and then having to change the game plan after halftime to adjust for Tate Forcier. Iowa ranks number 7 in the nation for rushing defense allowing 83 yards per game but number 52 in passing defense tweaked a little by last weeks performance.. Wisconsin ranks 26 allowing 114 yards per game rushing and 38 in passing defense allowing 193 yards per game.

Special teams play is another potential game changing area for both teams, mainly on the defending side. Both teams appear to be to be solid in the rankings for punt and kickoff returns but at the same time they have both allowed a touchdown on a punt or kickoff return. It happened to Iowa early in the Arizona game, putting them in a hole that they never could work their way out of. For Wisconsin it happened against MSU, a punt was returned for a touchdown giving the Spartans momentum and the lead which they never gave back in the game. These plays can change the entire momentum of the game as they have against both the Hawkeyes and the Badgers.

One mistake could be the difference in this game, one lapse in judgment by a quarterback, one running back that doesn't tuck the ball in, one blown coverage on special teams is all it could take. I believe that it will be the team that makes one less mistake that will come out on top. I expect a quick game on Saturday since I believe both offenses will be able to get the chains moving and that the running backs for both sides will see well over half of the snaps for the game. It should be a tight game throughout, I'm looking for the Iowa crowd to get behind the team and give them the push that they need to pull off the "upset."