A Look at the Season so Far, and a Preview for Northwestern

While trying to figure out what to expect from the remaining three games of the season I decided to look at the quality of the opponents that the Hawkeyes have faced to far. To this point their opponents in major conferences have a combined record of 45 wins and 20 losses. Of these seven opponents, five of them have made appearances in the top 25 at one point or another this season including 3 that made it inside the top ten. Of course Iowa lost 2 of these games but the combined point differential was 8 points and both games were within reach, not situations where the Hawkeyes didn't have a chance.

A closer look at some of Iowa's opponents reveals some strengths and weaknesses. Arizona's loss last week against Stanford not only dampened the hopes of the Wildcats in terms of going to the Rose Bowl but also knocked them down in the rankings a bit more. Penn State started slow at 3-3 but now has won 3 and a row to get back into the middle of the Big-10. They play MSU and OSU still this season, if this team has any of the fight that JoPa teams have had in the past they will give both a run for their money. Michigan was the opposite case, they started strong and have faded again this year, the second straight year with such results. Iowa State and Indiana are teams in similar positions; both have records around .500 and have put a scare into much more skilled opponents along the way. Iowa State knocked of Texas earlier this season and took Nebraska into overtime last week, where a failed 2 point conversion in overtime cost them the game. Indiana is another team that has yet to record a signature win but only lost by five to Iowa and kept Ohio State close until the end of the game. Their matchup with Wisconsin this week may be the one to watch outside of Iowa-Northwestern, especially with John Clay potentially being out for the matchup. Iowa has played a very strong schedule so far this year and with the exception of Minnesota that will not change the rest of the year.

For the remaining games this season only one thing is for sure, Iowa should beat Minnesota, one of two teams on their schedule that currently have a losing record. The only win the Gophers have picked up this season was at Middle Tennessee State, where they won by 7 points. The Wildcats from Northwestern and the Buckeyes from Ohio State will be interesting matchups for the Hawkeyes. The two have combined for 14 wins so far this season highlighted Ohio State's win over Miami. Northwestern does not yet have their signature win but only lost to MSU by 8 after leading for most of the game. The Wildcats close out their season against Wisconsin and look for a win, against either those Badgers or Hawkeyes this week, to set themselves up for their bowl game. Ohio State is always tough, the Hawkeyes always know what they are getting into when they face the Buckeyes. After last year's results without Ricky Stanzi I have hope for the first time in a few years against them.

This week's matchup for the Hawkeyes is very similar to last weeks. They are in a game that they should win but playing a team in Northwestern that always shows up to play against Iowa. They normally bring a spread offence to the table that causes problems all over the field. Since I was in Pennsylvania last weekend I got to catch part of the PSU vs NW game and wasn't very impressed by what I saw. After the Wildcats jumped out to a first half lead the Nittany Lions made changes and charged back to win the game handedly. Another problem that the Hawkeyes could face is the let down involved with playing Ohio State in the following week. However, I hope to see Adam Robinson return from his concussion this week and team up with Marcus Coker to keep the ball and the clock moving all game. The defense will need to continue to play as stout as is has the last two weeks to slow down the passing attack and hopefully Ricky Stanzi can be sharp early to get points on the board that weren't converted last week. I'm looking forward to a noon game on ESPN that I will finally get a chance to watch again.

A Whole New Season

The Iowa Hawkeyes have hit a couple bumps in the road this year, the early season loss on the road to Arizona and last week's devastating one point loss to Wisconsin. After the Arizona loss my justification was that a non conference loss was going to have a minimal impact on the actual outcome of the season. Last week's loss was a bit tougher to handle, especially the way the Badgers have been playing as of late, the head to head loss would have been, and still could be, a difficult tie breaker for the Hawkeyes to overcome. Even more difficult was the prospect of a Michigan State team on a roll coming into Iowa City the week after an emotional loss.

Then the game was played. The Hawkeyes buckled down and used a balance of precise offense and overpowering defense to dominate the formerly undefeated Spartans to the tune of a 37-6 victory. Ricky Stanzi was extremely efficient throwing the ball only 15 times, completing 11 of them for 190 yards and 3 touchdowns. After setting the tone on the opening drive, 80 yards in over 6 minutes, the Hawkeyes scored points on all 3 of their other first half drives which gave them a 30-0 lead at halftime. The other touchdown came on a nifty play on the defensive side of the ball. Tyler Sash intercepted Cousins on Michigan State's second drive of the game, tossed the ball to Micha Hyde who scampered 60 yards to put the Hawkeyes up 17 in the first quarter. The defensive pace didn't change the rest of the day. There were three interceptions for the Hawkeyes secondary, one sack and they allowed only one rushing first down the entire game.

This win was crucial for the Hawkeyes, the top of the Big-10 is now all jammed up with MSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa all sitting with one conference loss. The Buckeyes come to Iowa City in 3 weeks, which appears to be their only real test left. Ohio State has a bye this week, Penn State the week after and Michigan to close out the season. The Michigan game is a rivalry game but shouldn't be much of a problem since Michigan has struggled since their fast start. The Badgers and Spartans are done with their games against ranked opponents for the year, their game at Michigan is the biggest remaining one for the Badgers and the Spartans travel to Happy Valley for their season finale.

I thought about looking up tie breaker rules and figuring out what needs to happen for the Hawkeyes to win the Big-10 title and head to California in January for the Rose Bowl. As soon as I began to look for them I realized that there was only one thing that really mattered; winning. The Hawkeyes need to win their last 4 games, including the contest at home against Ohio State. This is the only thing that they can control, each week we have seen teams get knocked off in games that some would say shouldn't be close, this of course is why we play the games and don't just look at the sheets to decide who wins. Maybe Wisconsin overlooks an opponent and picks up a second Big-10 loss, maybe MSU comes out flat following last week's loss, the point is that anything could happen. The four team jam is guaranteed to be reduced to three by the virtue of the Ohio State @ Iowa game but that is the only sure thing. The season is still up for grabs for these four teams, the question is who will work to earn it.