Keys to an Amerks Upset

As the Rochester Americans head north to take on the Toronto Marlies in a Western Conference quarterfinal matchup I thought I would jot down a couple things that will be keys for an Amerks upset.

- Slowing Down the Marlies Transition Game
in the previous matchups the Marlies have created a majority of their scoring chances off the rush by being able to get around the Amerks not so fast/not so big defense.  If the Amerks' D men can keep the Marlies wingers to the outside and prevent/limit odd man rushes, goalie and team MVP David Leggio will stop a lot of pucks.  It is the 3rd and 4th skater into the zone that the Marlies bring to the net that tend to pick up rebound goals and create those chances. 

-Capitalizing on the Power Play
the Amerks have one of the league's top power play units and will need to cash in on those opportunities in what should prove to be a physical series just like last season.

-Create pressure on the fore check and finish your checks
the Amerks have a huge advantage on the physical side of this match up.  Nick Tarnasky, Max Legault, and Cody McCormick all can throw their weight around on the fore check and which should cause some turnovers or sloppy breakouts from the Marlies' defense.  As a team the Amerks cannot back down in any area especially against this young arrogant team that the Marlies possess.

-Leggio must continue to be the better goalie
David Leggio has been the team MVP two seasons in a row.  The man he will look at across the ice is the same man he changed next to last season.  Coming into the 2011-2012 season the Amerks signed Drew MacIntyre to be the #1 guy in Rochester, but a slow start by him and a fast one by Leggio proved costly as Leggio ran away with the job and never looked back.  MacIntyre has since made a nice rebound this season joining the Marlies after the lockout and looking very much like the guy who belongs in the playoffs.

-4 Lines Deep
The Marlies have a lot of young talent and some skilled veterans which gives them four solid lines that can create some match up problems for opponents.  However, the Amerks are getting reinforcements from the Sabres in the form of Mikhail Grigorenko, Brian Flynn and Mark Pysyk.  Those three all saw significant time in the NHL this season to varying degrees of success.  With their arrival, the Amerks now how an abundance of top 6 talent at the AHL level and will need all of it to get by the Marlies.

- No NHL hangover
Flynn, Pysyk and Grigorenko cannot have the what I like to call the "NHL Hangover."  This is when a player who has been up in the NHL gets sent back down and instead of continuing to play at a high level, they seem disenchanted and uninterested in being back down in the AHL.  This is compounded by the fact that they usually come down and play on the top line or PP unit which then brings down the entire team.  Now, this might not happen since these guys are going from a non playoff team in Buffalo to a playoff series for Rochester and should be jacked up to play but we shall see.

-Prediction
As I said on the #Thruwaypuck podcast, I believe that the Amerks can take this series from Toronto in 5 games.  The key will be taking one of the first two in Toronto.  If they comeback down 2-0 in they will have a very tough hill to climb.

Otto has the Marlies in 4
Jay has the Marlies in 4

Let the beards grow!