Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Movember Review


Once again this year many of the Wild players participated in Movember, from the teams website; Movember is an annual charity event held during November that engages men to grow Mo’s (slang for moustache) to raise awareness and funds for cancers affecting men. Last season, Wild defenseman Nick Schultz was one of the first NHL players to embrace the cause after the father of one of his closest friends developed prostate cancer and is currently battling against one of the more treatable forms of the disease. A 501(c)3 non-profit, Movember benefits the Prostate Cancer Foundation and LIVESTRONG.


Niklas Backstrom, Mikko Koivu, Marty Havlat, Nick Schultz
As for the month of November in terms of hockey it was a hot and cold one to say the least. They compiled six wins in the first eight games of the month only to close it out with a single win in the last five. The hot start was much to the credit of Niklas Backstrom, stealing a few games that the Wild didn't have a whole lot of business being in. The Wild were outshot by 80 shots though the first eight games, barely outscoring opponents while putting together their wins. In every one of these wins Wild opponents had at least ten more shots, in the wins over San Jose and Tampa Bay they were outshot by twenty but still managed one goal wins. On the other hand, in their two losses the Wild were outshot by a combined five shots. For the first half of the month the power play was converting on a quarter of their chances. The high spot of the month was the win over Detroit, who is number one in the west, even though the box score shows the Wild getting out played. Any time you can knock off one of the top teams in the league it does wonders for team confidence.

The second half of the season was another story for the team. In five games, they allowed 23 goals, eleven more then they scored despite scoring five in the win against Nashville and 4 in the loss to Colorado. The trend continued with shots as well as the Wild were outshot by 32 in the five games. The power play has struggled as well converting on just over six percent of their chances in the last series of games. The low spot is tough to pick for the month, the 6-1 loss to the Flyers hurt a lot but the 7-4 loss to division rival Colorado is embarrassing considering how well the goaltending has played this year.

So what does effect does November have on the Wild in terms of the season? Without factoring in today's games, on the last day of the month, the Wild sit in third place in the Northwest Division only 3 points behind both Vancouver and Colorado. Despite being that close to the division lead they sit only 2 points ahead of Calgary after their shutout loss to them earlier this week and surprisingly only 6 points ahead of last place Edmonton. The 24 points that the Wild have is good for only 12th place in the Western Conference; however, they sit four points out of the number four spot in the conference.

In my October recap I said that a record of four games over .500 would be very nice for the month, they only went one game over. The result is essentially remaining stationary in the standings, the same in the division and only a one position drop in the conference. The Wild need to work on keeping shots closer as well, the game against Calgary on Monday was the first time they have outshot the opponent since Edmonton on October 14th and only the third time all season.

December is a tough month for the Wild, they play four division games and of the 14 games this month all but one is against Western Conference opponents. A winning month would be extremely beneficial in the standings though I expect them to once again hang around the .500 level maybe just a game or two over. This should keep them in the playoff race but still on the outside looking in at a time that I would like to see them work their way up.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Another Season as the Team Ready to Turn the Corner

The Hawkeyes close out the regular season against Minnesota in a game that should be about as close as their rankings. Looking at how the Hawkeyes got to 7-4, 4-3 in the Big 10, though is painful no matter how many times I look at the schedule. Chances are the Hawks will still go to a major bowl game and gave a good chance to win it but knowing that only 19 points stand between them and an undefeated season is hard to swallow.

It feels like the season just began a few weeks ago, a nice easy opener, a rivalry game against a relatively unknown Iowa State team, and a tough road test against one of the better PAC-10 teams in a night game. The Hawkeyes were ranked in the top ten in the pre season polls and were expected to compete with Ohio State for the Big 10 title and to remain around the top in the nation for most of the season. A bunch of tough losses later the Hawks are one of only two, four loss teams in the top 25. Despite having four losses the Hawkeyes have yet to drop out of the rankings this season, though their #24 spot this week after dropping 2 consecutive games is the lowest position so far. Luckily there are still 2 more games to play this season.

The margin of defeat in their four losses this season goes as follows; seven points to #20 Arizona, a single point to # 5 ranked Wisconsin, four points to a 4 loss Northwestern team(who climbed into the top 25 briefly after their victory over the Hawkeyes), and three points to #8 ranked Ohio State. In each of the four losses the Hawkeyes have given up points in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter that have cost them the game. This season has shown marked improvement on the offensive side of the ball, mainly in balance of plays and how well they have protected the ball. Hawkeyes quarterbacks have attempted 313 passes this season, 302 for Ricky Stanzi, for nearly 3,000 yards leading to 24 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. Running backs have had 334 attempts, which doesn't include 43 rush/sacks by Ricky Stanzi, for 1675 yards and 12 touchdowns. Between quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers there have been only 3 fumbles so far this season. To put this in perspective, last year's Orange Bowl winning team lost 8 fumbles and had 20 interceptions. This year's turnover margin of +14 is by far better than the +2 margin last year despite the fact that the defense has forced 9 fewer turnovers on the season.

Points per game have even improved this season; the defense has been strong as well. The average for all ten games this season is only 15.5 points per game, only decimal points above last year's average. The offense has improved as well, 29.5 points scored per game this season is 6.3 points better per game then the 23.2 in 2009. So where does the problem lie? To me it seems that when the points are scored has been the major culprit this season. In the 4 losses the opponent has scored at least the last point if not more than that. Despite the win in Michigan, the Hawkeyes were outscored 21-10 in the fourth quarter. This is truly interesting to me seeing as how well the Hawkeyes have looked during other parts of the game this season.

Who knows what the real reason that they are 7-3 instead of 10-0 is but I am sure that the players will be ready to go this Saturday in Minnesota. They, nor I, are ready to wrap up this season and start looking forward to next season yet. A fifth loss would not go over well regardless of when it were to happen but I think the team will settle out and finish strong. Nine wins I'm sure is the expectations now in the locker room and amongst fans such as myself. They still have plenty to play for; Stanzi and DJK have been moving up the record books, as has McNutt and all three would like to continue to do so. Adam Robinson is just under 70 yards away from 1,000 for the season, though it is not known yet if he will be in the lineup for this week's game. Adrian Clayborn is going to look to boost his draft stock against a weaker Gophers opponent after being double teamed and held for the majority of the season. Most of all the players will be ready to go for the trophy; the Floyd of Rosedale is on the line and no one wants to return home to Iowa City without it.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

A Look Around the Northwest Division

NORTHWEST GP W L OTL PTS Home   Road   Overall EAST WEST NW
Vancouver  18 10 5 3 23 6-0-1  4-5-2 10-5-3 5-2-1 5-3-2 4-1-0
Colorado  18 10 7 1 21 5-4-0 5-3-1 10-7-1 2-2-0 8-5-1 1-2-1
Minnesota  17 9 6 2 20 6-3-1 3-3-1 9-6-2 2-3-1 7-3-1 4-1-0
Calgary  17 7 10 0 14 4-5-0 3-5-0 7-10-0 0-2-0 7-8-0 3-3-0
Edmonton  17 4 10 3 11 2-5-0 2-5-3 4-10-3 1-2-1 3-8-2 1-4-1

Through a month of the NHL season 2 things are clear in the Northwest division; the difference for the Edmonton Oilers is not yet Taylor Hall and the Vancouver Canucks cannot be beaten at home.

EDMONTON OILERS:

For the Oilers it looks to be another rebuilding year, some are even talking about back to back first round draft picks though nothing is out of the question in either direction yet. As a number one draft pick Taylor had some large expectations to live up to and hasn't quite found a groove yet. He is a -8 in the plus minus category with 3 goals and 4 assists to put him at 7 points on the season, unfortunately for the oilers that puts him in either place on the team for scoring. Goaltending has not helped the team either; recently injured Nikolai Khabibulin has started 15 games, completing 13 of them, with a 4-10-1 record. He has allowed over 4 goals a game and currently has a .879 save percentage. Certainly the defense has not been much help but certainly more is expected of the veteran goalie in Edmonton. The Oilers will now turn to Devan Dbnyk who is 0-2 this season with a 2.99 GAA and a .923 save percentage, a small sample size but a desperate hope for the Oilers regardless. Despite their struggles the Oilters have collected points in 7 of their 17 games.

CALGARY FLAMES:

The Flames have continued this season in the "where do we go from here" direction that took over following the trade of Dion Phaneuf trade to Toronto last season. While they still have stars Jarome Iginla, Miikka Kiprusoff they seem to sit in the middle of the pack with a lack of offense. Kiprusoff has solid stats of 2.75 GAA and a save percentage over .900 but a 6-9 record to show for it. Iginla is the number 5 scorer on the team and his -7 plus minus rating is last among forwards on the team. Rene Borque leads the team with 15 points, 9 goals, a solid number but not enough on a team that should be doing more. Without some major changes, either in player personnel or coaching, I don't see this team doing any better this year then they finished last year. An interesting fact, the Flames are the only team in the division without an overtime loss. They don't have enough spark in their lineup to climb up in what is becoming a tough Northwest division and Western Conference in general.

COLORADO AVALANCHE:

Considering the loss of Craig Anderson for ten games already this season the Avalanche are my surprise team of the Northwest so far. In Peter Budaj's 11 starts this season, which includes one before the injury to Anderson, he has posted a 2.72 GAA and a .909 save percentage while earning 7 wins to the 3 losses and the single overtime loss. The overall balance of the offence has been good so far this year as well, 4 players average at least a point a game. The problem for the Avs seems to be that they either show up and play outstanding for the win or just don't show up at all and take the loss. This seems to be the case from the games that I have seen at least, which is more than the number of Wild games I have seen so far. This season could very well continue for the Avs especially with the return of Craig Anderson, balance is the key for any team these days in the NHL and they sure seem to have it.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS:

Speaking of Balance the Canucks have just that on the offensive side of the ice. They have 8 players with at least double digit points including a perfect balance at the top with the Sedin twins leading in points. Goaltending has also been a strong point so far for the Canucks as it seems to be every year. Roberto luongo has compiled 7 wins in 14 starts with a 2.69 GAA and a .913 save percentage. Backup Cory Schneider has been just strong in 5 appearances posting 3 wins and an overtime loss to go with a 1.59 GAA and a .949 save percentage. As mentioned at the beginning of the post the Canucks are undefeated in regulation at home, going 6-0-1, however they are 4-5-2 on the road. I think that their records inevitably even out a as the season goes along but until then the Canucks will stay atop the division.

MINNESOTA WILD:

If the standings were decided by the stat sheet the Wild would be sitting in the basement of the Northwest division and most likely the Western Conference. Their leading scorer and franchise player has only 3 goals but fortunately 12 assists. Martin Havlat has been finding the groove lately that management expected him to be in all of last year and the beginning of this year. The leading scorer for the Wild, Cal Clutterbuck, has 6 goals. Clutterbuck is supposed to be the physical presence on the ice, not the leading scorer. Brent Burns, a defenseman is the second leading scorer on the team, tied with Antti Miettinen with 5 goals. Niklas Backstrom has been one of only 2 sure things so far for the Wild. He has returned to his old form with a 1.91 GAA and a .938 save percentage on 412 shots through 14 games. The other sure thing has been the power play, which leads the league at 29%. If the Wild can get offense from the sources that it is expected, Havlat, Koivu and Burnett, then this season could be a good one for the Wild. Continued strong performances by Backstrom and solid in division play will help them stay toward to top of the division and among the leaders in the West.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

A Look at the Season so Far, and a Preview for Northwestern

While trying to figure out what to expect from the remaining three games of the season I decided to look at the quality of the opponents that the Hawkeyes have faced to far. To this point their opponents in major conferences have a combined record of 45 wins and 20 losses. Of these seven opponents, five of them have made appearances in the top 25 at one point or another this season including 3 that made it inside the top ten. Of course Iowa lost 2 of these games but the combined point differential was 8 points and both games were within reach, not situations where the Hawkeyes didn't have a chance.

A closer look at some of Iowa's opponents reveals some strengths and weaknesses. Arizona's loss last week against Stanford not only dampened the hopes of the Wildcats in terms of going to the Rose Bowl but also knocked them down in the rankings a bit more. Penn State started slow at 3-3 but now has won 3 and a row to get back into the middle of the Big-10. They play MSU and OSU still this season, if this team has any of the fight that JoPa teams have had in the past they will give both a run for their money. Michigan was the opposite case, they started strong and have faded again this year, the second straight year with such results. Iowa State and Indiana are teams in similar positions; both have records around .500 and have put a scare into much more skilled opponents along the way. Iowa State knocked of Texas earlier this season and took Nebraska into overtime last week, where a failed 2 point conversion in overtime cost them the game. Indiana is another team that has yet to record a signature win but only lost by five to Iowa and kept Ohio State close until the end of the game. Their matchup with Wisconsin this week may be the one to watch outside of Iowa-Northwestern, especially with John Clay potentially being out for the matchup. Iowa has played a very strong schedule so far this year and with the exception of Minnesota that will not change the rest of the year.

For the remaining games this season only one thing is for sure, Iowa should beat Minnesota, one of two teams on their schedule that currently have a losing record. The only win the Gophers have picked up this season was at Middle Tennessee State, where they won by 7 points. The Wildcats from Northwestern and the Buckeyes from Ohio State will be interesting matchups for the Hawkeyes. The two have combined for 14 wins so far this season highlighted Ohio State's win over Miami. Northwestern does not yet have their signature win but only lost to MSU by 8 after leading for most of the game. The Wildcats close out their season against Wisconsin and look for a win, against either those Badgers or Hawkeyes this week, to set themselves up for their bowl game. Ohio State is always tough, the Hawkeyes always know what they are getting into when they face the Buckeyes. After last year's results without Ricky Stanzi I have hope for the first time in a few years against them.

This week's matchup for the Hawkeyes is very similar to last weeks. They are in a game that they should win but playing a team in Northwestern that always shows up to play against Iowa. They normally bring a spread offence to the table that causes problems all over the field. Since I was in Pennsylvania last weekend I got to catch part of the PSU vs NW game and wasn't very impressed by what I saw. After the Wildcats jumped out to a first half lead the Nittany Lions made changes and charged back to win the game handedly. Another problem that the Hawkeyes could face is the let down involved with playing Ohio State in the following week. However, I hope to see Adam Robinson return from his concussion this week and team up with Marcus Coker to keep the ball and the clock moving all game. The defense will need to continue to play as stout as is has the last two weeks to slow down the passing attack and hopefully Ricky Stanzi can be sharp early to get points on the board that weren't converted last week. I'm looking forward to a noon game on ESPN that I will finally get a chance to watch again.

Monday, November 1, 2010

A Whole New Season

The Iowa Hawkeyes have hit a couple bumps in the road this year, the early season loss on the road to Arizona and last week's devastating one point loss to Wisconsin. After the Arizona loss my justification was that a non conference loss was going to have a minimal impact on the actual outcome of the season. Last week's loss was a bit tougher to handle, especially the way the Badgers have been playing as of late, the head to head loss would have been, and still could be, a difficult tie breaker for the Hawkeyes to overcome. Even more difficult was the prospect of a Michigan State team on a roll coming into Iowa City the week after an emotional loss.

Then the game was played. The Hawkeyes buckled down and used a balance of precise offense and overpowering defense to dominate the formerly undefeated Spartans to the tune of a 37-6 victory. Ricky Stanzi was extremely efficient throwing the ball only 15 times, completing 11 of them for 190 yards and 3 touchdowns. After setting the tone on the opening drive, 80 yards in over 6 minutes, the Hawkeyes scored points on all 3 of their other first half drives which gave them a 30-0 lead at halftime. The other touchdown came on a nifty play on the defensive side of the ball. Tyler Sash intercepted Cousins on Michigan State's second drive of the game, tossed the ball to Micha Hyde who scampered 60 yards to put the Hawkeyes up 17 in the first quarter. The defensive pace didn't change the rest of the day. There were three interceptions for the Hawkeyes secondary, one sack and they allowed only one rushing first down the entire game.

This win was crucial for the Hawkeyes, the top of the Big-10 is now all jammed up with MSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa all sitting with one conference loss. The Buckeyes come to Iowa City in 3 weeks, which appears to be their only real test left. Ohio State has a bye this week, Penn State the week after and Michigan to close out the season. The Michigan game is a rivalry game but shouldn't be much of a problem since Michigan has struggled since their fast start. The Badgers and Spartans are done with their games against ranked opponents for the year, their game at Michigan is the biggest remaining one for the Badgers and the Spartans travel to Happy Valley for their season finale.

I thought about looking up tie breaker rules and figuring out what needs to happen for the Hawkeyes to win the Big-10 title and head to California in January for the Rose Bowl. As soon as I began to look for them I realized that there was only one thing that really mattered; winning. The Hawkeyes need to win their last 4 games, including the contest at home against Ohio State. This is the only thing that they can control, each week we have seen teams get knocked off in games that some would say shouldn't be close, this of course is why we play the games and don't just look at the sheets to decide who wins. Maybe Wisconsin overlooks an opponent and picks up a second Big-10 loss, maybe MSU comes out flat following last week's loss, the point is that anything could happen. The four team jam is guaranteed to be reduced to three by the virtue of the Ohio State @ Iowa game but that is the only sure thing. The season is still up for grabs for these four teams, the question is who will work to earn it.

Where Will It Go Next

The season this far for the Green Bay Packers cannot be summed up very easily. They dominated the preseason both offensively and defensively, the offense has been nonexistent for large chunks of games this regular season, the defense forgot to show up against the Lions and then dominated the Jets offense keeping them off the scoreboard all together. A large chunk of inconsistency can be credited to the injuries sustained this season, there are currently 11 players on injured reserve and three others that have visited the PUP list this season.

The most notable injuries were on offense; the loss of Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley were immediately noticeable and the Packers are still trying to find a way to fully overcome the void that was created. The defense has been decimated as well, losing star Nick Barnett to an injury similar to that one suffered by Brian Urlacher last year. Overall 8 of the players who were placed on either list so far this season were on defense, something that is very hard to overcome.

Despite the inconsistencies and the slow start the Packers are still in a position where they control their own destiny. They are currently percentage points above Chicago in the standings since the Packers have not yet had their bye week. Even though Chicago currently holds the tie breaker with the dead to head win I have confidence that the Pack should win the rematch in the season finale. The Vikings are struggling to find their identity and despite the emergence of the Lions I still believe that the Packers are a better team overall. This week the Pack head into Dallas where the Cowboys can't get any worse than their performance last week, but they don't have a leader to help them get going in the right direction. Green Bay should go into their bye week at 6-3 with at least a share of the NFC North division lead.

The rest of the season will continue to be interesting with a few questions to answer. Will Brandon Jackson continue to be enough for the Packers running/short pass game? Can Aaron Rodgers find the rhythm with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver that he had last year? Will the defense continue to play like they did against the Jets or will they show up as they did against the Lions again this year? After the 3-3 start I was pessimistic about the season and almost ready to pack it in, but 2 big wins and a favorable schedule the rest of the way, I like the potential that the season shows if the Packers can keep the momentum going after the bye.

A Less Than Wild Start

Before the start of the NHL season I was unsure what to expect from the Minnesota Wild. After the first month of the season my expectations have still not been cleared up very much. A 4-4-2 start is good for a tie for third place in the Northwest division with an extra game played over Vancouver and 11th place overall in the western conference. There have been some very good team performances, highlighted by the 6-2 win against Vancouver and the 2-1 win against eastern powerhouse Washington, and some poor ones as well, the 5-1 loss to Vancouver 3 nights after the big win.

The team opened the season in Finland against a Carolina team that I thought was beatable, the single point that the Wild got out of the two game set was not enough to me. Since that series though things have gotten better. Niklas Backstrom has gotten stronger as the season has progressed, returning to his form of 2 years ago. So far this season he has played in 9 games, picked up 4 wins, posted a goals against average of 2.08 and a save percentage of .923. In his 5 total losses Backstrom has received no offensive support, a total of only 9 goals. It is not as if he is giving up huge games in losses either, 13 goals against in the five games is just over his average of 2 goals against per game.

One of the missing aspects again this year is the emergence of a pure goal scorer. Mikko Koivu is already on a pace of over a point per game but has done so by collecting 2 assist for every goal he scores. Nothing is wrong with this but Koivu is tied for the team lead in goals with Bret Burns, Guillaume Latendresse, and Matt Cullen. The wild need someone to establish themselves as a scoring threat to create a mental problem for the opponent. Matt Cullen is not going to be that guy but it is nice to see a move that was questioned in the off season paying off so far here early in the season, he has 3 goals and 7 assists which is good for second on the team in points.

Another team positive for the Wild is their special teams. The power play is currently operating at 31%, good for second in the league. The penalty kill sits just outside that top 10 killing off 84.9 percent of the opponent's chances. The power play percentage is sure to fall eventually but the kill rate should remain solid since Minnesota hasn't lost all of the defensive prowess that Jacques Lemaire instilled in many of these same players during his time in St. Paul.

Overall the team is still in good position for this year, I think that they should have a few more wins than they do but the transition is still being made. Nothing is holding this team back this year and once everything comes together they could make a good run. The month of November is going to be a key to the season, I'd like to see them continue to win the games that they are supposed to and pull off a couple that they aren't. 4 games over .500 for the month would be a welcomed improvement and should keep them in the hunt early in the season.