Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Dan's 2014-15 Picks

I will preface this post by saying that I have not had much time to put a lot of thought into my preview so this will be short and sweet.  Though now that I think about it, my past picks have been terrible so maybe a change will help?

Western Conference
This conference is by far the superior conference and is loaded with good teams.  I am willing to bet that teams 9-11 in the West would be in the top 8 in the East.  Based on the fact that there are usually a couple of changes of playoff teams I break it down like this....  Anaheim and St. Louis win their divisions, the Ducks behind a younger line up (sorry Teemu and Saku) and a legitimate 2nd line center in Kesler.  My gut says that John Gibson takes over the #1 job in net.  The Blues added a #1 center in Paul Stastny who deepens their lineup and takes some pressure off David Backes who was being asked to be a shut down center and top scorer.  Jake Allen is ready to be a #1 goalie and will prove it.  In the west, San Jose and LA are too talented to not make the dance.  The Kings seem to take the first couple months in cruise control and then kick it in to gear around February.  Despite all the nonsense that went on in SJ, they still have a lot of talent on the roster.  I then will pick Arizona to be the new girl at the dance.  Injuries really hurt them last year especially the one to goaltender Mike Smith.  If he stays healthy, they make it.  The Canucks will be better because they fired Torterella and finally moved all the guys who didn't want to be there (Kesler, Lou) and brought in Ryan Miller.  He will solidify that spot and the Sedins return to being a dynamic pair.  Not sure where else they get goals from which keeps them out.  The teams in Alberta will again miss the playoffs but they will be better.  Edmonton still has too many questions on D and Calgary can't score.  The rest of the Central will break down like so.  The Blackhawks have one more kick at this thing before the salary cap punishes them for having too many good players.  The darlings of a lot of people are the Stars.  Adding Spezza is huge as long as he stays healthy.  Still worried about their D but coach Lindy Ruff has made a career of making poor talent serviceable on D.  The Avalanche will make a drop from winning the division last year but they again have a lot of talent and a good goaltender.  Just missing the playoffs, is the Wild who will suffer from no goaltender and streaky scoring.  Nashville will be better because their coach is a very good one, and Winnipeg will be in the McEichel sweepstakes.
Pacific                
Anaheim*
San Jose*
LA*
Arizona*
Vancouver
Calgary
Edmonton
Central
St. Louis*
Chicago*
Dallas*
Colorado*
Minnesota
Nashville
Winnipeg

Eastern Conference
As I stated earlier, the East is the least.  In the metro (who named these divisions?)  Pittsburgh will be improved with a new coach, and a fresh outlook.  Their problem is in the playoffs, not making them.  The Rangers lost a couple pieces but are still a solid core, and have King Henry.  The Devils make a big jump.  I really think Broduer was a distraction last season and now Corey Schneider will show off his talent and carry my fantasy team to victory!  In Philly, they seemed to have figured some things out with their new coach.  Giroux loses his pal Hartnell but I think Simmonds steps in to be a top line winger.  Just missing the playoffs are the CBJ's and Islanders.  The Jackets miss because they have a couple key injuries to top 6 guys and they have to play a hard game nigh in and night out.  I just don't see them doing it again this year.  The Islanders will also be right there and could make the dance.  There are some question marks in the line up still but I do like the additions they made in goal and on D.  At the bottom of the division will be the Caps and Canes.  The caps live and die on the power play and Ovie carrying the load.  The Canes aren't sure who their goalie is and have a couple of big injuries they will get a top 3 pick in June. 
In the Atlantic, the Bruins will once again be the top dog in the group.  They have one maybe two kicks left before Chara gets too old and the cap hurts them.  The Lightning continue to improve and will challenge for the division title.  I really like the addition of Jason Garrison to their D and PP.  The Canadians made some interesting changes by letting Gionta and Gorges go to Buffalo and will rely on their younger kids to be their go to guys.  They still have Subban and Price to anchor the team.  The Leafs get back in the dance behind a Rocket Richard season from Phil Kessel and a Vezina season from Jonathan Bernier.  If those guys are their best players then they have a shot.  Just missing the playoffs are the Panthers.  They should be much improved from last year but I just don't think their kids are ready to lead.  I'm thinking that Detroit misses because it's just time for them to miss.  I'm probably wrong but why not.  Ottawa is a little bit of mess in my opinion.  I do not like making Karlsson captain.  Just because he is your best player does not mean he should be your captain.  Anyhow, they were a mess last year and lost their number 1 center.  They did make the playoffs 2 years ago so they could bounce back.  Then there's Buffalo.  The suffering is almost over, one more season and then they can get McEichel.  They could win 10 more games than last season and still be in last place.  Just let that sink in.
Metro
Pittsburgh*
New York Rangers*
New Jersey*
Philadelphia*
Columbus
New York Islanders
Washington
Carolina

Atlantic
Boston*
Tampa Bay*
Montreal*
Toronto*
Florida
Detroit
Ottawa
Buffalo

East Winner:  Tampa Bay
West Winner:  St. Louis
Stanley Cup:  St. Louis




Saturday, October 4, 2014

2014-15 Season Predictions

Otto's Picks:
AtlanticMetropolitanCentralPacific
Boston*Pittsburgh*Chicago*LA*
Montreal*Washington*St Louis*San Jose*
Tampa Bay*NY Rangers*Minnesota*Vancouver*
TorontoColumbus*Colorado*Anaheim
DetroitPhiladelphia*Dallas*Edmonton
BuffaloNJ DevilsNashvilleArizona
OttawaNY IslandersWinnipegCalgary
FloridaCarolina
* Denotes playoff team

East Comments:
In the Atlantic, I don't see much changing at the top of the division. I don't see Toronto having a change in philosophy that allows their goalies to become less of a responsibility. However, if the goaltenders play as they did midway through last year, they could grab a wild card spot. Detroit made the playoffs last year, however I think they took advantage of an extremely weak east in doing so. This year a few teams have improved to keep them out. I'm one of the few that doesn't see Buffalo being a lock for the last spot in the league. They made some moves this off season that actually improve their roster. The biggest question in Buffalo is goal tending, if they don't get competent help, they will be the favorites in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes. I don't know what Ottawa has this year, they did lock up Bobby Ryan, however they still lack overwhelming power in any particular spot. Florida has no questions in goal with the addition of Bobby Lou, however they don't have any top scorers and the defense lacks power unless Aaron Ekblad makes a major difference,

In the Metro, I couldn't find a way to knock Pittsburgh out of the top spot. Despite their playoff issues they have been one of the strongest regular season teams in the league. I think Washington make a jump this year after their off-season make over. The Rangers maintain course taking the third playoff spot. Columbus builds on last years success and again gets the top wild card spot. Philadelphia came on strong last week, and while slipping a bit this year, will still claim a playoff spot. The Devils added names to this year, however most of them are far past their prime. A non playoff team needs to improve their roster and I don't know if they did enough. I'm not sold on the Islanders roster either. Their goalie is an upgrade and having Tavares back will help but not enough to jump into the playoffs. Carolina is my pick for the last place team in the league. An aging goalie and a shallow roster spells trouble for the Canes.

West Comments:
Full disclosure, I have no idea how to differentiate between most of these teams. In the Central, I don't see the Avs repeating their start from last season, which played a crucial roll in their top seeding for the playoffs. This year they finish lower, but still in the playoffs. In their place, the Blackhawks claim the top seed in the division. They just have too much talent on their roster. The Blues also carry on this season, Young talent up front and in back but another team that is relying on not so proven goaltending. The Wild also lack goaltending experience, however their top 6 will compete with any team in the league. A developing D will continue to improve and the Wild will take the top wild card in the West. The Stars will also continue on from last year. They have a ton of talent and good goaltending, A higher finish wouldn't surprise me in the least. Nashville hasn't improved quite enough yet, however a good goalie can take a team over the top with a few stolen wins here and there. Winnipeg lacks in just about all areas, resulting in last place in the Central.

In the Pacific LA and San Jose remain among the top in the league, both have great talent remaining from last year and no reason to see them drop (even if the Kings don't seem to care where the enter the playoffs). The Canucks jump up into third in the division with consistent goaltending in Ryan Miller. Somehow, the Ducks fall out, despite their offensive talent, their goalies are now unproven in the NHL. While Edmonton will be better this year, they play in a division that their jump would need to be astronomical to get them into the playoffs, which it wont be. Arizona will be another solid team in the west, however not good enough to make the playoffs. Calgary's struggles will continue, however they wont be competing for last in the league, that award will go to someone in the west.

Picks for the cup:
East Representative:
Otto - Montreal

West Representative:
Otto - San Jose

2014-15 Stanley Cup Champions:
Otto - San Jose